Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.791999 22.574281 24.497408 26.736859 29.285857 32.112205 35.504463
2025-10-12 17.904178 20.330200 23.128639 26.634948 30.968067 36.226336 43.216461
2025-10-19 16.063796 18.877406 22.296564 26.843335 32.868979 40.794802 52.402737
2025-10-26 14.527736 17.524488 21.316023 26.603490 34.028501 44.500357 61.256665
2025-11-02 13.346147 16.444404 20.496440 26.378441 35.065137 48.113200 70.823564
2025-11-09 12.459506 15.635207 19.910162 26.341479 36.287705 52.146992 82.158452
2025-11-16 11.687680 14.894632 19.319088 26.185075 37.248418 55.884174 94.108530
2025-11-23 11.031494 14.249372 18.786206 26.025350 38.137512 59.626144 107.358259
2025-11-30 10.456190 13.667845 18.283922 25.836762 38.919223 63.296997 121.890526
2025-12-07 9.995689 13.214042 17.925528 25.824151 39.981402 67.708717 140.175622
2025-12-14 9.555716 12.757513 17.521136 25.682079 40.770557 71.725619 159.524316
2025-12-21 9.381363 12.681676 17.693872 26.524138 43.530869 80.689142 199.204294
2025-12-28 8.959117 12.212346 17.222004 26.218069 44.044331 84.794100 226.897591
2026-01-04 8.628504 11.865664 16.924420 26.196804 45.149875 90.724691 267.342475
2026-01-11 8.374181 11.622221 16.776935 26.433264 46.845066 98.774187 326.897193
2026-01-18 8.057573 11.261774 16.407694 26.212372 47.495786 104.184750 381.880244
2026-01-25 7.767268 10.927671 16.060191 25.997751 48.127820 109.799620 448.484682
2026-02-01 7.529104 10.665138 15.817632 25.963923 49.183344 117.178100 544.197333
2026-02-08 7.289143 10.387408 15.530396 25.811737 49.927582 123.872035 654.946299
2026-02-15 7.065138 10.125183 15.254197 25.655706 50.640562 130.815399 795.365043
2026-02-22 6.851649 9.870635 14.976566 25.471152 51.254167 137.728359 971.317309
2026-03-01 6.676427 9.672314 14.788572 25.458869 52.332208 147.077414 1248.431265
2026-03-08 6.494098 9.453998 14.551611 25.319728 53.043249 155.333943 1591.840765